Electricity usage will decline even as the number of lamps increases. The global installed base of lamps is projected to rise to 59.3 billion units in 2020, up from 56.4 billion in 2013.
“The fall in electricity consumed by lighting is being driven by the systematic ban of inefficient—mainly incandescent—lamps and bulbs in countries across the world,” said William Rhodes, lighting research manager for IHS. “As these bans start to kick in, consumers and business owners will be replacing their lamps with more energy-efficient technologies, such as light-emitting diode (LED) alternatives.”
Even so, consumers are not currently flocking to LED in great numbers because of the relatively high pricing involved, Rhodes noted. Instead, shoppers are opting for cheaper options like compact fluorescents (CFL) or halogen lamps.
Most CFL lamps, for instance, consume just 25 percent of the electricity used by an equivalent incandescent lamp but are 87 percent cheaper on average. As a result, CFL lamps provide a suitable energy-saving alternative to consumers without a significant price premium.
For their part, halogen lamps have a similar cost and light compared to incandescent but also consume less electricity, making halogens suitable options as well for consumers in the short to long term.
As pricing falls for LED lamps and bulbs toward the end of this decade, consumers and business owners can be expected to start replacing incandescent, CFL, halogen and other lighting technologies with LED alternatives, even though cost will remain an inhibitor for many years. This will be the case despite average electricity savings of 85 percent for LEDs, Rhodes said.
One factor could reduce the potential savings to be gained. LED’s flexibility could make it more attractive for decorative and architectural applications, including new design possibilities such as under-counter lighting in kitchens or kickboard lighting close to the floor.
Such a shift toward LED decorative lighting could offset some of the energy savings gained by replacing incandescent lamps with LEDs in the first place, Rhodes said in his analysis.
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A fundamental paradigm shift in lighting technologies toward more efficient lamps and bulbs will significantly reduce global electricity demand for general illumination in the next few years, according to IHS Technology (NYSE: IHS).
The energy usage of the installed base of lighting technologies for general illumination will fall to a projected 2.75 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) by 2020, down a notable 24 percent from 3.61 trillion kWh last year. Overall, the installed base for general lighting—which covers homes, businesses and street lamps but not architectural or theatrical lighting—will account for 10.3 percent of the net electricity generated in 2020, down from 16.4 percent in 2013, as shown in the figure below.
Advanced Energy Legislation Tracker (remarkably up-to-date tracker for state legislature bills): http://www.aeltracker.org/
PUC Portal (basic info on PUCs and electricity generation in each state): http://pucportal.aee.net/
America’s nuclear waste management program is at an impasse. The approach laid out under the 1987 Amendments to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA)—which tied the entire U.S. highlevel waste management program to the fate of the Yucca Mountain site—has not worked to produce a timely solution for dealing with the nation’s most hazardous radioactive materials. The Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future (the Commission) was chartered to recommend a new strategy for managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Doing nothing is not an option. Continued stalemate is costly—to utility ratepayers, to communities that have become unwilling hosts of long-term nuclear waste storage facilities, and to U.S. taxpayers who face mounting liabilities, already running into billions of dollars, as a result of the failure by both the executive and legislative branches to meet federal waste management commitments. The strategy that the BRC recommends has eight key elements:
1. A new, consent-based approach to siting future nuclear waste management facilities.
2. A new organization dedicated solely to implementing the waste management program and empowered with the authority and resources to succeed.
3. Access to the funds nuclear utility ratepayers are providing for the purpose of nuclear waste management.
4. Prompt efforts to develop one or more geologic disposal facilities.
5. Prompt efforts to develop one or more consolidated storage facilities.
6. Prompt efforts to prepare for the eventual large-scale transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste toconsolidated storage and disposal facilities when such
facilities become available.
7. Support for continued U.S. innovation in nuclear energy technology and for workforce development.
8. Active U.S. leadership in international efforts to address safety, waste management, non-proliferation, and security concerns.
The report also lists actions that can be taken without legislative action. The last chapter of the report (chapter 13) identifies a number of concrete next steps; and a text box on page ix of the Executive Summary lists several ways to get started on the specific task of siting new waste disposal and consolidated storage facilities.
For the complete report, please visit: http://www.brc.gov
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Update on Fukushima Daiichi-December 19, 2011
The Fukushima Daiichi reactors are in “a state of cold shutdown,” with temperatures at the bottom of the reactor pressure vessels and containment vessels stably below the boiling point and radiation levels at the plant boundary below 100 millirem per year. (By comparison, the average radiation level from all sources to U.S. citizens is about 400 millirem per year.) The announcement last Friday by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is a key milestone in the site’s recovery plan, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Gregory Jaczko said on his first visit to the site since March.
What does “a state of cold shutdown” mean? (From NEI’s Website)
In non-nuclear speak, it basically means the conditions within the nuclear reactor are such that it would be impossible for a chain reaction to occur. This term usually comes into play whenever a reactor is shut down periodically for refueling or for the final time prior to the long-term before it is decommissioned. When a reactor is in cold shutdown, the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) can be safely opened with great care and additional water is added to the cavity above the vessel for shielding to permit safe handling of the fuel for refueling (replacing depleted fuel elements) or defueling (removing the entire core).
In Fukushima Daiichi’s case, achieving the strict definition of “cold shutdown” is not possible because the RPVs have been breached. This means that the RPVs will not hold water (currently the cooling water is flowing through them) and some of the melted fuel may not be in the vessel, but rather on the floor below, which is still within the primary containment. To clean up the plant, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the plant’s owner and operator, will work with the Japanese government and other parties to develop a long-term plan that will include removing the damaged fuel.
TEPCO understood this important nuance to achieving “cold shutdown” early on this year when it developed its initial recovery plans and developed a new term, “cold shutdown condition,” which applies to how they are bringing the reactors to stable condition. Their definition is as follows:
- Temperature of RPV bottom is, in general, below 100 degrees Celsius.
- Release of radioactive materials from PCV is under control and public radiation exposure by additional release is being significantly held down. (Not exceed 1 mSv/y at the site boundary as a target.)
By their definition, the Fukushima Daiichi reactors will reach “cold shutdown condition” once they are below boiling point and are no longer releasing significant amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. This new definition, thus, has an important distinction between the more commonly used “cold shutdown,” which typically takes place at a nuclear plant under normal conditions.
Reaching “cold shutdown conditions” at Fukushima Daiichi, however, has been an extremely difficult task for TEPCO workers given the conditions at the site and is a very significant milestone in their recovery efforts. TEPCO expects to reach this condition in just a few weeks by the end of 2011.
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